Chance of Warmer Springtime ?

The American GFS two week prognosis hints on that the anti-cyclone establish itself over Scandinavia, and then gradually let's the airmasses to warm up over our area, together with sunny / friendly weather. The problem only is, that every 6 hours they "jump" between different scenarios. If you study such charts, it is better not to check them every 6 hours, otherwise you go crazy and erratic.

But as of lately it seems that more weather centers are better in agreement on that a scenario in which a gradual warming anti-cyclone get established over Scandinavia. It would finally result into some warmer than usual days, with temperatures around 15°C, even higher (e.g. in Stockholm)


A Grain of Salt

Like I always add - the longer the prognosis is, the more grains of salt you take it with. Because anything beyond 5 days is often just garbage. Especially if you look at scenarios around day 10+ - it will for SURE be different. The only thing you can read out of it, are possible hints on future scenarios. That also depends on what kind of weather situations are you in at the moment. If you already have a stable anti-cyclone over your area, the likely hood that the same weather will last a while longer, is higher. Compared to constant changing cyclones marching across a highway... (but sometimes even that can be rather steady). Other factors are your location in the world. And what kind of weather patterns are common ?


It depends on...

So, it depends on what type of weather pattern you are in - where you live - and that can sometimes give you hints on what will come. But many times, you can't really see anything in the future for a time that lies 10 days ahead. Sure the computer make it all look so "fixed" and "clear". but those are always just predictions based on the now, which constantly change - and the longer into the future to go - the more goes the spectrum apart  of possible scenarious that may and may not - until it is all just noise.... e.g. nothing of real value.


12 April 2021 night-morning


As of now, snow 75 km from Stockholm

While Stockholm didn't really get any snow at all - because we were within a warmer sector of air, east of the snow front (see gif) - but only 75 km from here to the west and northwest - the temperatures have been around 0°C - and it has been snowing all night and in the morning hours. They must have gotten 5-15 cm snow (unconfirmed). Albeit it will quickly disappear, because the temperatures will rise, once the sun comes out again (after the cyclone has passed).

Additional info @ 12:35:
Apparently not so much snow has fallen (or stayed on the ground). However, you can see the expansion of the snow cover here. Still, beyond Sala Region, more than 10 cm are registered.

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