So, there has been this back and forth thing going on revolving a new summer period in Stockholm... or not. Yesterday American GFS weather outlook prognosis canceled summer. Only that in the latest calculation, to enable it again. So you see, they calculate "because they can / have the capacity" - but that doesn't mean "they" know what they are doing. I mean, it literally jumps between "a new summer period", and "unsteady, chilly and rainy".

Toys vs Usefulness

What use is the whole thing, if not playing around with models and capacities. Until their toys get better. Kind of like with iPhones. The real difference is perhaps far smaller than we are to be believed. I mean, most of it is, let's face it, fairy dust into the eyes of humanity.

It is of course the money. And all that what's behind the developing of technology - which certainly has nothing to do with any benefits for the billions. Not really, I mean. But rather the opposite. And "in the mean time, we can sell the shit to the crowds, and they gonna love and lick it".

And we do.

The shit race for the next thing

Look at us. And all our toys. And the boredom we so easily entangle into. Gimme more. Gimme new. Gimme WOW.

I am included in that shit race, make no mistake. Perhaps, I do start to set out one foot out of that game. But hey, i jumped on the latest iPhone, didn't I ? (well latest up until a couple weeks with iPhone 17; when the new kid in town is introduced to the world, and we get stars shining in our eyes, easily awaiting to unwrap our Christmas presents. Preferably every month with something.

It also creates a lot of frustration (when reality kicks in), or boredom because it wasn't such great stuff, or not enough new stuff. And there is boredom along the road of months or even just weeks... when the ego urges for new toys.

Uh.

Ok. Let's go back to the Weather prognosis.

So "they decided" it will be summer again in Stockholm. Woopie. However, the temperatures have been lifted again, now even exceeding 25°C for 4+5 Sep 2024. This general period is on the verge of a high seasons summer, but ends it around 12 September - which likely will be something more like early autumn; with with MIN temperatures then falling below 10°C, down to 6-7°C, and max not exceeding 15°C.

Yeah, that would be typical autumn á lá middle of September in Stockholm.

• Note: this prognosis is the latest update (00Z), and more pessimistic after 10 Sep; with unusual low temperatures - frost over most parts of Sweden !

Current situation: Shallow Cyclone over Scandinavia

For the moment we are within a broad but shallow cyclonic area over Scandinavia - which made the nights cool down. I am surprised that the sky was free from clouds tonight, making me see a glimpse of weak auroras over the northern horizon.

Now this shallow cyclone over Finland is moving towards Stockholm westwards, and then moving northwestwards towards Norway and out of sea. That means we will get chilly weather with clouds and some rain during this period.

This cyclone is flanked by two large high pressure areas; one over Russia and the other just emerged, now located over UK and Southern Norway. The shallow cyclone kind of dives through the two, west wards and then northwards.

In the mean time, the UK high pressure area will be pushed northwards towards Northern Scandinavia and then unite with the Russian anti-cyclone. This allows the shallow cyclone to move westwards (over Stockholm), and then weaken and move northwards again until it dissipates into and with the Atlantic cyclonic front systems.

By 3 September it is thought

(illustration above) that the Russian high gets sucked up into the (originally UK) high, which lies over Kola Peninsula and West Scandinavia. This then could result into a rotational movement, which allows the anticyclone to gain larger influence over the rest of Scandinavia. As it also holds off any cold air as well weather fronts from the Atlantic.

The rotation of the anticyclone would then - or so it is believed - start to make a "bridge" over Scandinavia, connecting to the everlasting "Azores" high pressure, anticyclonic system. This is what would give us warm temperatures over Scandinavia, on the verge of high seasons summer type of weather. The colder front would be move way up, north of Scandinavia, over Atlantic Ice sea. No change for them to affect us with colder airmasses.

But like with all bridges...

in a highly dynamic flow pattern; those bridges get stretched and thinned - thereby weaken, eventually tearing apart. Giving way for chillier air from the North / Northwest. Which you see in the chart below, aimed for 8 Sep 2024 - but it is believed in this calculation, that the colder air will not reach Stockholm until 13 September. AS still warm air will flow, and push against the colder air from the north for a while longer. Until it is inevitable, that the colder air will reach our region (13 Sep).

Well, at this point

which is 13 days ahead of time - you can be SURE by 100% - that this is all nonsense, and reality will be different, and that American GFS will have changed scenario several times...

Right now: we have chillier temperatures

Here below you see that the temperatures after midnight have cooled down over Scandinavia, approaching 10°C or starting to go below that threshold - while the rest of Europe enjoys higher night temperatures.

As the low pressure core is now approaching Stockholm, we will face clouds or even overcast chilly weather, with some rain today and tomorrow, possibily also day after tomorrow.