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The weather is fantastic. We are now residing within the warmer airmass, and the temperatures are rising in Sweden up to 25°C. Here in Stockholm they hover around 22-24°C - and the feeling is simply wonderful. Actually it has been 2 weeks ago the last time we were on this level...
So, it has been a while to feel that warm feeling on the skin. Strange to say, I may add. I mean in August you would think that you get that more often... but it just wasn't the case very often. Now it is September, ans we are officially in the autumn month.
The outlook
calls for temperatures between 18 and 26°C up until around 14 September - then it will likely fall down to normal or below normal levels... See illustration below, based on the latest GFS calculated model (which of course changes constantly every 6 hours... no nothing is written in stone).
The Plunges of September
Usually when you get real summer temperatures (25°C) into the month of September in Stockholm, way above normal average - then you get eventually a drastic fall in temperatures. I remember that has been the case several times. Right now i have to think of the very prolonged summer of 2002. I was in Baltimore MD in the US, but saw that Stockholm had wonderful summer temperatures... until it then plunged like big times, and stayed on a low level. That is also the time when people tend to get colds.
And boy did it feel cold when I came back from the 28-33°C warm Baltimore in Sept 2002, which my body had adapted to, because I was there for 3.5 weeks... arriving in Stockholm... and I froze so much. The first three days were worst, often shaking, even after the gym visit.
Until my body had adapted...
Here comes September 2002
where you can see that after an already fantastic warm August, summer reached two weeks into September with temperatures up to 25-26°C. And then came the sharp drop. By the third week in September 2002, the MAX temperatures sometimes barely reached 10°C...
Crows screaming vs Calm Reality
Year of 2002, was a very warm year, with a fantastic warm springtime and summer all the way. Of course, the crows of "climate Change" would use this to an disadvantage, and spell doom and gloom over our lands.
In reality, it was simply fantastic, and it warmed the hearts and souls of the Nordic people. Look for yourself, how the MIN and MAX temperatures in Stockholm developed during April - September 2002.
Truly fantastic ! Only a period of 2-3 weeks, from mid June to the beginning of July 2002, it was a bit chilly. Summer, with August and September were exceptionally warm, extending summer with many more 25°C days.
Why did Summer 2023 drop off ?
The reason is pretty simple. with the beginning of 1 July 2023, there were no high pressure areas, that would lead warm air to Scandinavia (in a stable way, over a longer period). The lack of High pressure areas during summer leads to far more unstable weather. We were not hit by direct inflow of cold air right from the north, though. It was simply a matter of that we constantly got low pressure areas moving into our region, with plenty of clouds and rain. Normally the high pressure areas can push them away / keep them at bay. But this didn't happen during July and August 2023.
Except now, starting with a high pressure area over our area on 4 September... keeping the rain and clouds a bit away. There might still be weak cold front passing by, giving us lower temperatures, but then the high pressure area regains dominance for the time being. Or at least, that is the model calculation (not reality).
Ultimately, we will see if that will come about as modeled. Or if a twist gets thrown in, and everything changes.
As for the time being, it is absolutely lovely, to feel summer warm air on the skin, as of today. |
